2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ NE – Week 17 2022
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
21@23
NE +2
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
NE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: NE
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 58%Projected margin: 0.7
NE
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 0.7. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -160 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9SEASON PPR
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES