Dolphins vs Patriots – Week 17 2022
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
21@23
NE BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 21, New England Patriots 23.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins, 4 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 58%Our line: NE -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.039Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (24)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.089 (3)
44.5% (16)Offense success %40.9% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NE by 2.7. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 2.7. The market has NE at -3.0.
New England Patriots won, MIA 21, NE 23. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at -3.0, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 17, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 5.2 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against NE +0.035.
