Bears vs Lions – Week 17 2022
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
10@41
DET BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 17
2022 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 10, Detroit Lions 41.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 76%Our line: DET -9.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -9.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.006
-0.046 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (6)
+0.118 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.078 (30)
40.5% (27)Offense success %45.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 9.4. Actual: 31. Off by 21.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 26.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 76% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DET by 9.4. The market has DET at -4.5.
Detroit Lions won, CHI 10, DET 41. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 76% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -4.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 17, the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 6.2 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: CHI -0.164 against DET -0.006.
