CHI @ DET – Week 2 2025
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
21@52
DET BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 82%Our line: DET -12.3
DET
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-12.3
OUR LINE
-451
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.080Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.010
45.8%Offense success %45.2%
46.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 12.3. Actual: 31. Off by 18.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CHI | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +220 | -270 |
| Our fair price | +451 | -451 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
82%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2 SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6 SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
172.2 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
C.Williams3942 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Swift1087 yd · 9 TD
K.Monangai783 yd · 5 TD
C.Williams383 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
C.Loveland58 rec · 713 yd · 6 TD
D.Moore50 rec · 682 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 12.3. The market has DET at -6.0.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: CHI +0.061 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
