Bears vs Lions – Week 2 2025
CHI
DET
CHI
AWAY
21@52
DET BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 21, Detroit Lions 52.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bears, 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 82%Our line: DET -12.3
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -12.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
82%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
| SOURCE | CHI | DET | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +220 |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.080 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.081 (7)
+0.018 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.010 (14)
45.8% (9)Offense success %45.2% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 12.3. Actual: 31. Off by 18.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 25.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
| CHI@DETW11 2023 | CHI 26, DET 31 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 12.3. The market has DET at -6.0.
Detroit Lions won, CHI 21, DET 52. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -6.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 2, the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: CHI +0.061 against DET +0.091.
