SEA @ PIT – Week 2 2025
SEA
PIT
SEA
AWAY
31@17
SEA BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 58%Our line: SEA -2.8
SEA
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.8
OUR LINE
-139
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.150Net EPA / play+0.007
+0.033Offense EPA / play+0.025
-0.117Defense EPA / play+0.018
46.3%Offense success %44.0%
39.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 14. Off by 11.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +160 | -192 |
| Our fair price | -139 | +139 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.65
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
37%
DIFFERENCE
+21%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
SEA
J.Smith-Njigba
WR
359.9 SEASON PPR
S.Darnold
QB
235.4 SEASON PPR
K.Walker
RB
191.9 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
S.Darnold4048 yd · 25 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
K.Walker1027 yd · 5 TD
Z.Charbonnet730 yd · 12 TD
S.Darnold95 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Smith-Njigba119 rec · 1793 yd · 10 TD
C.Kupp47 rec · 593 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@SEAW17 2023 | PIT 30, SEA 23 | PIT | W |
| SEA@PITW6 2021 | SEA 20, PIT 23 | SEA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.8. The market has SEA at +3.5.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 30, SEA 23 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: SEA +0.150 against PIT +0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
