Falcons vs Vikings – Week 2 2025
ATL
MIN
ATL
AWAY
22@6
ATL BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 22, Minnesota Vikings 6.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Falcons, 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
62%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
| SOURCE | ATL | MIN | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +150 | -180 | 62.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.021 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (28)
-0.004 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.100 (4)
43.7% (18)Offense success %42.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but ATL won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 22.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@MINW14 2024 | ATL 21, MIN 42 | MIN | W |
| MIN@ATLW9 2023 | MIN 31, ATL 28 | MIN | W |
| ATL@MINW6 2020 | ATL 40, MIN 23 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.4. The market has MIN at -3.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 22, MIN 6. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Atlanta Falcons were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, ATL 21, MIN 42 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: ATL -0.018 against MIN -0.016.
