49ers vs Saints – Week 2 2025
SF
NO
SF
AWAY
26@21
SF BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 26, New Orleans Saints 21.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 49ers, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: SF 63%Our line: SF -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
60%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
| SOURCE | SF | NO | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -166 | +140 | 60.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.018Net EPA / play-0.029
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (10)
48.3% (4)Offense success %42.0% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 4.3. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.7 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@SFW12 2022 | NO 0, SF 13 | SF | W |
| SF@NOW10 2020 | SF 13, NO 27 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs NO
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.3. The market has SF at -3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 26, NO 21. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 63% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the San Francisco 49ers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, NO 0, SF 13 in Week 12 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.018 against NO -0.029.
