CAR @ ARI – Week 2 2025
CAR
ARI
CAR
AWAY
22@27
ARI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 72%Our line: ARI -7.9
ARI
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.9
OUR LINE
-259
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.039Offense EPA / play-0.018
+0.067Defense EPA / play+0.088
43.1%Offense success %43.0%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 7.9. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +250 | -310 |
| Our fair price | +259 | -259 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.36
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
-0%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CAR
B.Young
QB
218.0 SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
216.3 SEASON PPR
T.McMillan
WR
213.4 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
B.Young3011 yd · 23 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
R.Dowdle1076 yd · 6 TD
C.Hubbard511 yd · 1 TD
B.Young216 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
T.McMillan70 rec · 1014 yd · 7 TD
J.Coker33 rec · 394 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project ARI by 7.9. The market has ARI at -7.0.
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Carolina Panthers, ARI 30, CAR 36 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Carolina Panthers: CAR -0.107 against ARI -0.107.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
