Panthers vs Cardinals – Week 2 2025
CAR
ARI
CAR
AWAY
22@27
ARI BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 2
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 22, Arizona Cardinals 27.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 72%Our line: ARI -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -7.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
ARI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
74%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
| SOURCE | CAR | ARI | ARI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +250 | -310 | 73.5% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.107Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.039 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (23)
+0.067 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (27)
43.1% (21)Offense success %43.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 7.9. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 2.9 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project ARI by 7.9. The market has ARI at -7.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, CAR 22, ARI 27. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -7.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 2, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Carolina Panthers, ARI 30, CAR 36 in Week 16 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Carolina Panthers: CAR -0.107 against ARI -0.107.
