ARI @ CAR – Week 4 2020
ARI
CAR
ARI
AWAY
21@31
CAR BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 57%Our line: ARI -2.4
ARI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.4
OUR LINE
-134
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.031Net EPA / play-0.073
+0.038Offense EPA / play+0.004
+0.007Defense EPA / play+0.077
45.4%Offense success %45.0%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but CAR won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -157 | +141 |
| Our fair price | -134 | +134 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
60%
DIFFERENCE
-2%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8 SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
192.2 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3971 yd · 26 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Kenyan Drake955 yd · 10 TD
Kyler Murray819 yd · 11 TD
Chase Edmonds448 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins115 rec · 1407 yd · 6 TD
Christian Kirk48 rec · 621 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 2.4. The market has ARI at -3.0.
The model projects 46.7 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CAR 22, ARI 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.031 against CAR -0.073.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
