2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ CAR – Week 4 2020
ARI
CAR
ARI
AWAY
21@31
CAR +10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 57%Projected margin: -4.7
ARI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but CAR won. Projected margin was 4.7 -- the model overestimated by 14.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -157 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
192.2SEASON PPR
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES