Cardinals vs Panthers – Week 4 2020
ARI
CAR
ARI
AWAY
21@31
CAR BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 21, Carolina Panthers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 57%Our line: ARI -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.031Net EPA / play-0.073
+0.038 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (20)
+0.007 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (24)
45.4% (18)Offense success %45.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but CAR won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
378.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
287.8 SEASON PPR
Kenyan Drake
RB
192.2 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3971 yd · 26 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Kenyan Drake955 yd · 10 TD
Kyler Murray819 yd · 11 TD
Chase Edmonds448 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins115 rec · 1407 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2022 | ARI 26, CAR 16 | ARI | W |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CAR
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 2.4. The market has ARI at -3.0.
Carolina Panthers won, ARI 21, CAR 31. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 5.8 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CAR 22, ARI 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.031 against CAR -0.073.
