Vikings vs Texans – Week 4 2020
MIN
HOU
MIN
AWAY
31@23
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 31, Houston Texans 23.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 55%Our line: MIN -1.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -1.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
55%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.003Net EPA / play-0.071
+0.095 (8)Offense EPA / play+0.099 (7)
+0.098 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.170 (31)
49.2% (5)Offense success %47.6% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 8. Off by 6.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@MINW3 2024 | HOU 7, MIN 34 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs HOU
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 55% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 1.7. The market has MIN at +3.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 31, HOU 23. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 55% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at +3.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 6.0 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, HOU 7, MIN 34 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.003 against HOU -0.071.
