Saints vs Lions – Week 4 2020
NO
DET
NO
AWAY
35@29
NO BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 35, Detroit Lions 29.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Saints, 1 Lions.
Model confidence: NO 65%Our line: NO -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.177Net EPA / play-0.208
+0.093 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.005 (22)
-0.084 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.203 (32)
47.6% (8)Offense success %44.3% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 5.1. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Drew Brees2942 yd · 24 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@DETW1 2026 | NO 30, DET 31 | DET | W |
| DET@NOW13 2023 | DET 33, NO 28 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs DET
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 5.1. The market has NO at -3.0.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 35, DET 29. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the New Orleans Saints were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.5, 4.0 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, NO 30, DET 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.177 against DET -0.208.
