Giants vs Rams – Week 4 2020
NYG
LA
NYG
AWAY
9@17
LA BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 9, Los Angeles Rams 17.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Giants, 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 66%Our line: LA -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -5.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.086Net EPA / play+0.162
-0.056 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (23)
+0.031 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.177 (1)
41.6% (27)Offense success %44.5% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 5.4. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
LA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@LAW2 2026 | NYG 6, LA 28 | LA | W |
| LA@NYGW17 2023 | LA 26, NYG 25 | LA | W |
| LA@NYGW6 2021 | LA 38, NYG 11 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project LA by 5.4. The market has LA at -13.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, NYG 9, LA 17. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -13.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 4, the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 2.2 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, NYG 6, LA 28 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: NYG -0.086 against LA +0.162.
