Ravens vs Commanders – Week 4 2020
BAL
WAS
BAL
AWAY
31@17
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 31, Washington Commanders 17.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: BAL 73%Our line: BAL -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -14.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.180Net EPA / play+0.023
+0.120 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.067 (29)
-0.060 (5)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
45.8% (16)Offense success %41.2% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 14. Off by 5.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@BALW6 2024 | WAS 23, BAL 30 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs WAS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.2. The market has BAL at -14.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 31, WAS 17. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -14.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 14.5 points.
In Week 4, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, WAS 23, BAL 30 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.180 against WAS +0.023.
