2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ WAS – Week 4 2020
BAL
WAS
BAL
AWAY
31@17
BAL +14
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
WAS
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 73%Projected margin: -13.6
BAL
PICK SIDE
-14.5
SPREAD
-13.6
PROJ MARGIN
-806
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BAL by 13.6. Actual: 14 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -806 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -958 | Won · +$0.12 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
183.0SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
170.1SEASON PPR
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@BALW6 2024 | WAS 23, BAL 30 | BAL | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES