Falcons vs Packers – Week 4 2020
ATL
GB
ATL
AWAY
16@30
GB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 16, Green Bay Packers 30.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Falcons, 3 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 67%Our line: GB -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.042Net EPA / play+0.196
+0.021 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.219 (1)
+0.063 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.022 (14)
43.2% (26)Offense success %50.7% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 14. Off by 8.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@GBW3 2026 | ATL 35, GB 14 | ATL | W |
| GB@ATLW2 2023 | GB 24, ATL 25 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 5.8. The market has GB at -5.0.
Green Bay Packers won, ATL 16, GB 30. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -5.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 4, the Atlanta Falcons were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 56.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 9.7 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, MON 9:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 35, GB 14 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: ATL -0.042 against GB +0.196.
