Colts vs Bears – Week 4 2020
IND
CHI
IND
AWAY
19@11
IND BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 19, Chicago Bears 11.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 51%Our line: CHI -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.033
+0.079 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (24)
-0.030 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (10)
46.6% (10)Offense success %43.6% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but IND won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@INDW3 2024 | CHI 16, IND 21 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.2. The market has CHI at +3.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 19, CHI 11. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at +3.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 1.9 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, CHI 16, IND 21 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.109 against CHI -0.033.
