IND @ CHI – Week 4 2020
IND
CHI
IND
AWAY
19@11
IND BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 51%Our line: CHI -0.2
CHI
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.2
OUR LINE
-102
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.033
+0.079Offense EPA / play-0.028
-0.030Defense EPA / play+0.006
46.6%Offense success %43.6%
45.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but IND won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 8.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -174 | +156 |
| Our fair price | +102 | -102 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8 SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0 SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
193.2 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Jonathan Taylor1169 yd · 11 TD
Nyheim Hines380 yd · 3 TD
Jordan Wilkins308 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
Zach Pascal44 rec · 629 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@INDW3 2024 | CHI 16, IND 21 | IND | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 0.2. The market has CHI at +3.5.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 4 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, CHI 16, IND 21 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND +0.109 against CHI -0.033.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
