2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ CHI – Week 4 2020
IND
CHI
IND
AWAY
19@11
IND +8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2020 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER C
PICK: CHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CHI 51%Projected margin: 0.3
CHI
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but IND won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 8.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +156 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
193.2SEASON PPR
CHI
David Montgomery
RB
264.8SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@INDW3 2024 | CHI 16, IND 21 | IND | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES