2026 PRESEASON PROJECTIONS

2026 NFL Win Totals & Playoff Odds

Q: Which team has the highest projected win total in 2026?

Buffalo Bills lead the model's 2026 projections at an expected 10.3 wins, with an 80% range of 7 to 13 wins and a 78% chance to make the playoffs.

Q: Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?

In our preseason projection, Buffalo Bills won the Super Bowl in 10.9% of simulations, the highest of any team, and no team cleared 15%. That run was made before Week 1 and has not been updated. Current Super Bowl odds that include 2026 results are on the live playoff odds page.

Q: How does NoPunt's projection compare to the Vegas win total?

Every team's projected wins sits beside its DraftKings win total (the over/under). For most teams our model tracks the market within a win. Where they differ by 3 or more, we flag it as a divergence, not a bet. That gap is usually a rebuilding team: our model regresses it toward the mean while the market prices it lower. We show the comparison as transparency; our proven, graded edge is on individual game picks, not season win totals.

Q: How are these 2026 NFL projections calculated?

We simulate the real 272-game 2026 schedule 10,000 times. Each team's strength blends its offense and defense efficiency (EPA per play) over recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, regressed toward league average, and adjusted for its projected starting quarterback. Then every game is played out with the same calibrated logistic model that powers our weekly picks.

Q: Will these projections update?

Not this page. These are offseason priors built from final 2025 ratings, and they stay frozen as a record of what we projected before Week 1. The live playoff odds, which re-simulate from actual results, are on the playoff odds page.

We ran the real 2026 schedule through 10,000 simulations. Here are the projected win totals, each next to the DraftKings Vegas win total so you can see where our model agrees with the market and where it diverges, plus playoff, division, and Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams.

PRESEASON PROJECTION Run Aug 19, before Week 1, and not updated since. Results through Week 7 are in, and the NOW column shows the real records. These odds do not know any 2026 result. For odds that do, see live playoff odds, standings and power rankings.

PLAYER PROJECTIONS AWARDS ODDS PLAYOFF PICTURE SUPER BOWL ODDS MODEL vs VEGAS SCHEDULE STRENGTH DIVISION RACES

Before kickoff

The projections are free, so are the weekly picks

Below is the model's win total for all 32 teams. Every Wednesday it also picks every game, grades each one in public, and emails the slate before kickoff.

PROJECTED WIN TOTALS

SORTED BY PROJECTED WINS · 80% RANGE

VEGAS = the posted DraftKings season win total, as of Aug 28, 2026.

#	TEAM	NOW	PROJ WINS	VEGAS	VS MKT	RANGE	2025 W	Δ	PLAYOFFS	DIV	SB
1	BUF Bills	5-1	10.3	10.5	−0.2	7–13	12	-1.7	78%	56%	10.9%
2	DET Lions	4-2	10.2	10.5	−0.3	7–13	9	+1.2	69%	41%	7.3%
3	PHI Eagles	2-5	10.1	10.5	−0.4	7–13	11	-0.9	70%	54%	6.1%
4	LAR Rams	3-4	9.9	11.5	−1.6	7–13	12	-2.1	67%	40%	6.7%
5	BAL Ravens	4-3	9.9	11.5	−1.6	7–13	8	+1.9	68%	48%	6.3%
6	DEN Broncos	5-2	9.8	9.5	+0.3	7–13	14	-4.2	68%	42%	5.1%
7	GB Packers	4-3	9.5	9.5	0.0	6–13	9	+0.5	58%	28%	5.2%
8	NE Patriots	4-3	9.3	10.5	−1.2	6–12	14	-4.7	60%	32%	4.8%
9	SEA Seahawks	4-3	9.3	10.5	−1.2	6–12	14	-4.7	55%	27%	3.9%
10	HOU Texans	2-5	9.1	9.5	−0.4	6–12	12	-2.9	57%	33%	3.7%
11	KC Chiefs	5-1	9.1	10.5	−1.4	6–12	6	+3.1	55%	31%	4.0%
12	SF 49ers	6-1	9.1	9.5	−0.4	6–12	12	-2.9	50%	25%	3.6%
13	JAX Jaguars	4-2	9.0	8.5	+0.5	6–12	13	-4.0	54%	31%	3.4%
14	IND Colts	2-5	9.0	7.5	+1.5	6–12	8	+1.0	53%	32%	3.1%
15	TB Buccaneers	2-5	8.8	8.5	+0.3	6–12	8	+0.8	49%	37%	2.6%
16	MIN Vikings	6-0	8.8	8.5	+0.3	6–12	9	-0.3	44%	17%	2.5%
17	LAC Chargers	0-6	8.6	9.5	−0.9	5–12	11	-2.4	46%	24%	2.9%
18	PIT Steelers	5-2	8.4	8.5	−0.1	5–12	10	-1.6	42%	21%	2.2%
19	CHI Bears	5-2	8.4	9.5	−1.1	5–12	11	-2.6	39%	14%	2.9%
20	ATL Falcons	3-4	8.4	6.5	+1.9	5–12	8	+0.4	41%	29%	2.3%
21	WAS Commanders	1-4-1	8.4	7.5	+0.9	5–12	5	+3.4	38%	21%	2.0%
22	NO Saints	2-5	8.2	7.5	+0.7	5–11	6	+2.2	35%	25%	1.3%
23	CLE Browns	5-2	8.1	5.5	+2.6	5–11	5	+3.1	36%	18%	1.4%
24	CIN Bengals	4-2	7.9	10.5	−2.6	5–11	6	+1.9	31%	14%	1.1%
25	DAL Cowboys	3-4	7.8	9.5	−1.7	5–11	7	+0.8	28%	14%	1.2%
26	ARI Cardinals	2-5	7.5	3.5	+4.0	4–11	3	+4.5	22%	8%	0.9%
27	NYG Giants	4-2-1	7.2	7.5	−0.3	4–10	4	+3.2	20%	10%	0.7%
28	MIA Dolphins	1-5	7.1	3.5	+3.6	4–10	7	+0.1	23%	9%	1.0%
29	CAR Panthers	3-3	6.6	7.5	−0.9	4–10	8	-1.4	15%	9%	0.4%
30	LV Raiders	3-4	6.1	5.5	+0.6	3–9	3	+3.1	10%	4%	0.2%
31	NYJ Jets	2-5	6.1	5.5	+0.6	3–9	3	+3.1	10%	3%	0.2%
32	TEN Titans	1-6	6.0	6.5	−0.5	3–9	3	+3.0	10%	4%	0.2%

DIVISION ODDS

P(WIN DIVISION) FROM 10,000 SIMS

AFC EAST→

FAVORITE: BUF

FAVORITE: BAL

FAVORITE: HOU

FAVORITE: DEN

FAVORITE: PHI

FAVORITE: DET

FAVORITE: TB

FAVORITE: LAR

WEEK 1 GAME PREDICTIONS

CardinalsatChargers

Chargers 62%

FalconsatSteelers

Steelers 55%

RavensatColts

Ravens 51%

BillsatTexans

Bills 55%

BearsatPanthers

Bears 57%

BrownsatJaguars

Jaguars 63%

CowboysatGiants

Giants 51%

BroncosatChiefs

Chiefs 51%

PackersatVikings

Packers 50%

DolphinsatRaiders

Dolphins 53%

PatriotsatSeahawks

Seahawks 54%

SaintsatLions

Lions 68%

JetsatTitans

Titans 52%

49ersatRams

Rams 60%

BuccaneersatBengals

Buccaneers 52%

CommandersatEagles

Eagles 64%

All 272 game predictions for 2026 →

GAME PREDICTIONS 2025 FINAL STANDINGS POWER RANKINGS TEAM ANALYTICS METHODOLOGY

QUESTIONS

Which team has the highest projected win total in 2026?

Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?

How does NoPunt's projection compare to the Vegas win total?

How are these 2026 NFL projections calculated?

Will these projections update?

NOTE

Team strength blends each team’s offense and defense efficiency (EPA per play) over recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, regressed toward the league average, and adjusted for the team’s projected starting quarterback. We simulate the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times from there. These are offseason priors, not in-season odds: they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. Full model details on the methodology page.

Before kickoff

Get the model's picks every week, free

Every Wednesday the model picks every game and emails the slate before kickoff. Every pick is graded in public, wins and losses.