2026 SEASON PROJECTIONS

2026 NFL Win Totals & Playoff Odds

Q: Which team has the highest projected win total in 2026?

Buffalo Bills lead the model's 2026 projections at an expected 10.3 wins, with an 80% range of 7 to 13 wins and a 78% chance to make the playoffs.

Q: Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?

Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl in 10.9% of simulations, the highest of any team. No team clears 15%, which is the honest answer: a single NFL season is mostly variance.

Q: How does NoPunt's projection compare to the Vegas win total?

Every team's projected wins sits beside its DraftKings win total (the over/under). For most teams our model tracks the market within a win. Where they differ by 3 or more, we flag it as a divergence, not a bet. That gap is usually a rebuilding team: our model regresses it toward the mean while the market prices it lower. We show the comparison as transparency; our proven, graded edge is on individual game picks, not season win totals.

Q: How are these 2026 NFL projections calculated?

We simulate the real 272-game 2026 schedule 10,000 times. Each team's strength blends its offense and defense efficiency (EPA per play) over recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, regressed toward league average, and adjusted for its projected starting quarterback. Then every game is played out with the same calibrated logistic model that powers our weekly picks.

Q: Will these projections update?

Yes. These are offseason priors built from final 2025 ratings. Once the 2026 season starts, our in-season Bayesian ratings take over and the playoff odds re-simulate weekly from actual results.

We ran the real 2026 schedule through 10,000 simulations. Here are the projected win totals, each next to the DraftKings Vegas win total so you can see where our model agrees with the market and where it diverges, plus playoff, division, and Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams.

PLAYER PROJECTIONS AWARDS ODDS PLAYOFF PICTURE SUPER BOWL ODDS MODEL vs VEGAS SCHEDULE STRENGTH DIVISION RACES

Before kickoff

The projections are free, so are the weekly picks

Below is the model's preseason win total for all 32 teams. Once the season starts it grades a pick on every game, tracked in public. Get them emailed the Wednesday before Week 1.

PROJECTED WIN TOTALS

SORTED BY PROJECTED WINS · 80% RANGE

VEGAS = the posted DraftKings season win total, as of Aug 28, 2026.

#	TEAM	PROJ WINS	VEGAS	VS MKT	RANGE	2025 W	Δ	PLAYOFFS	DIV	SB
1	BUF Bills	10.3	10.5	−0.2	7–13	12	-1.7	78%	56%	10.9%
2	DET Lions	10.2	10.5	−0.3	7–13	9	+1.2	69%	41%	7.3%
3	PHI Eagles	10.1	10.5	−0.4	7–13	11	-0.9	70%	54%	6.1%
4	LAR Rams	9.9	11.5	−1.6	7–13	12	-2.1	67%	40%	6.7%
5	BAL Ravens	9.9	11.5	−1.6	7–13	8	+1.9	68%	48%	6.3%
6	DEN Broncos	9.8	9.5	+0.3	7–13	14	-4.2	68%	42%	5.1%
7	GB Packers	9.5	9.5	0.0	6–13	9	+0.5	58%	28%	5.2%
8	NE Patriots	9.3	10.5	−1.2	6–12	14	-4.7	60%	32%	4.8%
9	SEA Seahawks	9.3	10.5	−1.2	6–12	14	-4.7	55%	27%	3.9%
10	HOU Texans	9.1	9.5	−0.4	6–12	12	-2.9	57%	33%	3.7%
11	KC Chiefs	9.1	10.5	−1.4	6–12	6	+3.1	55%	31%	4.0%
12	SF 49ers	9.1	9.5	−0.4	6–12	12	-2.9	50%	25%	3.6%
13	JAX Jaguars	9.0	8.5	+0.5	6–12	13	-4.0	54%	31%	3.4%
14	IND Colts	9.0	7.5	+1.5	6–12	8	+1.0	53%	32%	3.1%
15	TB Buccaneers	8.8	8.5	+0.3	6–12	8	+0.8	49%	37%	2.6%
16	MIN Vikings	8.8	8.5	+0.3	6–12	9	-0.3	44%	17%	2.5%
17	LAC Chargers	8.6	9.5	−0.9	5–12	11	-2.4	46%	24%	2.9%
18	PIT Steelers	8.4	8.5	−0.1	5–12	10	-1.6	42%	21%	2.2%
19	CHI Bears	8.4	9.5	−1.1	5–12	11	-2.6	39%	14%	2.9%
20	ATL Falcons	8.4	6.5	+1.9	5–12	8	+0.4	41%	29%	2.3%
21	WAS Commanders	8.4	7.5	+0.9	5–12	5	+3.4	38%	21%	2.0%
22	NO Saints	8.2	7.5	+0.7	5–11	6	+2.2	35%	25%	1.3%
23	CLE Browns	8.1	5.5	+2.6	5–11	5	+3.1	36%	18%	1.4%
24	CIN Bengals	7.9	10.5	−2.6	5–11	6	+1.9	31%	14%	1.1%
25	DAL Cowboys	7.8	9.5	−1.7	5–11	7	+0.8	28%	14%	1.2%
26	ARI Cardinals	7.5	3.5	+4.0	4–11	3	+4.5	22%	8%	0.9%
27	NYG Giants	7.2	7.5	−0.3	4–10	4	+3.2	20%	10%	0.7%
28	MIA Dolphins	7.1	3.5	+3.6	4–10	7	+0.1	23%	9%	1.0%
29	CAR Panthers	6.6	7.5	−0.9	4–10	8	-1.4	15%	9%	0.4%
30	LV Raiders	6.1	5.5	+0.6	3–9	3	+3.1	10%	4%	0.2%
31	NYJ Jets	6.1	5.5	+0.6	3–9	3	+3.1	10%	3%	0.2%
32	TEN Titans	6.0	6.5	−0.5	3–9	3	+3.0	10%	4%	0.2%

DIVISION ODDS

P(WIN DIVISION) FROM 10,000 SIMS

AFC EAST→

FAVORITE: BUF

FAVORITE: BAL

FAVORITE: HOU

FAVORITE: DEN

FAVORITE: PHI

FAVORITE: DET

FAVORITE: TB

FAVORITE: LAR

WEEK 1 GAME PREDICTIONS

CardinalsatChargers

Chargers 62%

FalconsatSteelers

Steelers 55%

RavensatColts

Ravens 51%

BillsatTexans

Bills 55%

BearsatPanthers

Bears 57%

BrownsatJaguars

Jaguars 63%

CowboysatGiants

Giants 51%

BroncosatChiefs

Chiefs 51%

PackersatVikings

Packers 50%

DolphinsatRaiders

Dolphins 53%

PatriotsatSeahawks

Seahawks 54%

SaintsatLions

Lions 68%

JetsatTitans

Titans 52%

49ersatRams

Rams 60%

BuccaneersatBengals

Buccaneers 52%

CommandersatEagles

Eagles 64%

All 272 game predictions for 2026 →

GAME PREDICTIONS 2025 FINAL STANDINGS POWER RANKINGS TEAM ANALYTICS METHODOLOGY

QUESTIONS

Which team has the highest projected win total in 2026?

Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?

How does NoPunt's projection compare to the Vegas win total?

How are these 2026 NFL projections calculated?

Will these projections update?

NOTE

Team strength blends each team’s offense and defense efficiency (EPA per play) over recent seasons, weighted toward the most recent, regressed toward the league average, and adjusted for the team’s projected starting quarterback. We simulate the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times from there. These are offseason priors, not in-season odds: they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. Full model details on the methodology page.

Before kickoff

Get the model's Week 1 picks, free, before kickoff

You're looking at the preseason projections. Once the season starts, the model grades a pick on every game, and every pick is tracked in public. Get them in your inbox the Wednesday before Week 1.