2026 NFL Win Totals & Playoff Odds · Model Projections for All 32 Teams

Q: Which team is projected to win the most games in 2026?

Los Angeles Rams lead the model's 2026 projections at 10.8 wins, with an 80% range of 8 to 14 wins and a 80% chance to make the playoffs.

Q: Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?

Los Angeles Rams win the Super Bowl in 11.0% of simulations — the highest of any team. No team clears 15%, which is the honest answer: a single NFL season is mostly variance.

Q: How are these 2026 NFL projections calculated?

We simulate the real 272-game 2026 schedule 10,000 times. Each team's strength starts from its final 2025 EPA-per-play rating, regressed 50% toward league average with offseason uncertainty added, then every game is played out with the same calibrated logistic model that powers our weekly picks.

Q: Will these projections update?

Yes. These are offseason priors built from final 2025 ratings. Once the 2026 season starts, our in-season Bayesian ratings take over and the playoff odds re-simulate weekly from actual results.

PROJECTED WIN TOTALS

SORTED BY PROJECTED WINS · 80% RANGE

#	TEAM	PROJ WINS	RANGE	2025 W	Δ	PLAYOFFS	DIV	SB
1	LAR Rams	10.8	8–14	12	-1.2	80%	48%	11.0%
2	NE Patriots	10.7	8–14	14	-3.3	80%	55%	10.4%
3	SEA Seahawks	10.1	7–13	14	-3.9	70%	35%	7.2%
4	JAX Jaguars	10.1	7–13	13	-2.9	70%	38%	6.1%
5	DEN Broncos	10.0	7–13	14	-4.0	70%	47%	6.7%
6	BUF Bills	10.0	7–13	12	-2.0	70%	39%	6.9%
7	PHI Eagles	10.0	7–13	11	-1.0	70%	59%	5.6%
8	HOU Texans	9.9	7–13	12	-2.1	68%	34%	5.8%
9	DET Lions	9.8	7–13	9	+0.8	64%	37%	4.8%
10	IND Colts	9.5	6–13	8	+1.5	59%	27%	3.8%
11	GB Packers	9.2	6–12	9	+0.2	54%	27%	3.6%
12	KC Chiefs	9.0	6–12	6	+3.0	51%	26%	3.0%
13	CHI Bears	8.9	6–12	11	-2.1	48%	22%	3.1%
14	LAC Chargers	8.9	6–12	11	-2.1	49%	25%	3.1%
15	BAL Ravens	8.9	6–12	8	+0.9	49%	36%	2.4%
16	NO Saints	8.8	5–12	6	+2.8	45%	32%	1.8%
17	PIT Steelers	8.6	5–12	10	-1.4	46%	31%	2.2%
18	SF 49ers	8.6	5–12	12	-3.4	41%	13%	2.0%
19	ATL Falcons	8.6	5–12	8	+0.6	43%	29%	2.0%
20	TB Buccaneers	8.4	5–12	8	+0.4	40%	27%	1.9%
21	MIN Vikings	8.2	5–11	9	-0.8	34%	14%	1.4%
22	CLE Browns	8.0	5–11	5	+3.0	33%	21%	0.8%
23	DAL Cowboys	7.6	5–11	7	+0.6	27%	16%	0.9%
24	NYG Giants	7.6	5–11	4	+3.6	27%	16%	0.8%
25	CIN Bengals	7.2	4–10	6	+1.2	21%	12%	0.4%
26	CAR Panthers	7.1	4–10	8	-0.9	21%	12%	0.6%
27	ARI Cardinals	7.0	4–10	3	+4.0	17%	4%	0.5%
28	MIA Dolphins	7.0	4–10	7	+0.0	18%	5%	0.4%
29	WAS Commanders	6.9	4–10	5	+1.9	17%	10%	0.5%
30	TEN Titans	5.7	3–9	3	+2.7	6%	1%	0.1%
31	LV Raiders	5.5	3–8	3	+2.5	6%	2%	0.1%
32	NYJ Jets	5.3	3–8	3	+2.3	4%	1%	0.0%

DIVISION ODDS

P(WIN DIVISION) FROM 10,000 SIMS

AFC EAST

FAVORITE: NE

AFC NORTH

FAVORITE: BAL

AFC SOUTH

FAVORITE: JAX

AFC WEST

FAVORITE: DEN

NFC EAST

FAVORITE: PHI

NFC NORTH

FAVORITE: DET

NFC SOUTH

FAVORITE: NO

NFC WEST

FAVORITE: LAR

2025 FINAL STANDINGS POWER RANKINGS TEAM ANALYTICS METHODOLOGY

QUESTIONS

Which team is projected to win the most games in 2026?

Who is the 2026 Super Bowl favorite?

How are these 2026 NFL projections calculated?

Will these projections update?

NOTE

Monte Carlo over the real 2026 schedule. Team strength sampled per simulation from N(0.5 x final-2025 net EPA/play, 0.06^2); game outcomes via the calibrated logistic (K=6.0) with HFA=0.03. Seeding uses W-L with rating tiebreak (approximate, not full NFL tiebreakers). These are offseason priors, not in-season odds: they know the schedule but not free agency, the draft, or injuries. Full model details on the methodology page.

PROJECTED WIN TOTALS

SORTED BY PROJECTED WINS · 80% RANGE

#	TEAM	PROJ WINS	RANGE	2025 W	Δ	PLAYOFFS	DIV	SB
1	LAR Rams	10.8	8–14	12	-1.2	80%	48%	11.0%
2	NE Patriots	10.7	8–14	14	-3.3	80%	55%	10.4%
3	SEA Seahawks	10.1	7–13	14	-3.9	70%	35%	7.2%
4	JAX Jaguars	10.1	7–13	13	-2.9	70%	38%	6.1%
5	DEN Broncos	10.0	7–13	14	-4.0	70%	47%	6.7%
6	BUF Bills	10.0	7–13	12	-2.0	70%	39%	6.9%
7	PHI Eagles	10.0	7–13	11	-1.0	70%	59%	5.6%
8	HOU Texans	9.9	7–13	12	-2.1	68%	34%	5.8%
9	DET Lions	9.8	7–13	9	+0.8	64%	37%	4.8%
10	IND Colts	9.5	6–13	8	+1.5	59%	27%	3.8%
11	GB Packers	9.2	6–12	9	+0.2	54%	27%	3.6%
12	KC Chiefs	9.0	6–12	6	+3.0	51%	26%	3.0%
13	CHI Bears	8.9	6–12	11	-2.1	48%	22%	3.1%
14	LAC Chargers	8.9	6–12	11	-2.1	49%	25%	3.1%
15	BAL Ravens	8.9	6–12	8	+0.9	49%	36%	2.4%
16	NO Saints	8.8	5–12	6	+2.8	45%	32%	1.8%
17	PIT Steelers	8.6	5–12	10	-1.4	46%	31%	2.2%
18	SF 49ers	8.6	5–12	12	-3.4	41%	13%	2.0%
19	ATL Falcons	8.6	5–12	8	+0.6	43%	29%	2.0%
20	TB Buccaneers	8.4	5–12	8	+0.4	40%	27%	1.9%
21	MIN Vikings	8.2	5–11	9	-0.8	34%	14%	1.4%
22	CLE Browns	8.0	5–11	5	+3.0	33%	21%	0.8%
23	DAL Cowboys	7.6	5–11	7	+0.6	27%	16%	0.9%
24	NYG Giants	7.6	5–11	4	+3.6	27%	16%	0.8%
25	CIN Bengals	7.2	4–10	6	+1.2	21%	12%	0.4%
26	CAR Panthers	7.1	4–10	8	-0.9	21%	12%	0.6%
27	ARI Cardinals	7.0	4–10	3	+4.0	17%	4%	0.5%
28	MIA Dolphins	7.0	4–10	7	+0.0	18%	5%	0.4%
29	WAS Commanders	6.9	4–10	5	+1.9	17%	10%	0.5%
30	TEN Titans	5.7	3–9	3	+2.7	6%	1%	0.1%
31	LV Raiders	5.5	3–8	3	+2.5	6%	2%	0.1%
32	NYJ Jets	5.3	3–8	3	+2.3	4%	1%	0.0%