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ATL
NFC SOUTH · 2026 PROJECTION

Atlanta Falcons 2026

The model projects the Falcons at 8.6 wins (19th in the league), roughly holding their 8-win 2025 level. New Orleans Saints open as the model's NFC South favorite.

8.6
PROJ WINS (5–12)
43%
PLAYOFF ODDS
29%
WIN NFC SOUTH
2.0%
SUPER BOWL
10,000 SIMULATIONS · REAL 2026 SCHEDULE · POWER RATING #19

WIN DISTRIBUTION

P(EXACT WIN TOTAL) ACROSS 10,000 SIMS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AMBER = 80% RANGE (5–12 WINS)

PLAYOFF SEED ODDS

NFC SEEDS 1–7
#1 (BYE)
3.6%
#2 SEED
6.0%
#3 SEED
8.0%
#4 SEED
11.5%
#5 SEED
3.6%
#6 SEED
5.0%
#7 SEED
5.8%
MISS
56.5%

2026 SCHEDULE

26TH-HARDEST SLATE · OPP RATING = REGRESSED 2025 EPA
HARDEST STRETCH
Weeks 10–13
Chiefs · Vikings · Lions
REST EDGES (3+ DAYS)
2 edges · 1 deficit
Rested: wk 4, 12. Short: wk 13.
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
26th hardest of 32
Avg opponent rating -0.011 EPA/play
WKOPPONENTSITEOPP RATINGOPP PROJ WREST
1
Pittsburgh Steelers
PIT
Steelers
AWAY+0.0038.6—
2
Carolina Panthers
CAR
Panthers
HOME-0.0537.1—
3
Green Bay Packers
GB
Packers
AWAY+0.0419.2—
4
New Orleans Saints
NO
Saints
AWAY-0.0158.8+3d
5
Baltimore Ravens
BAL
Ravens
HOME+0.0058.9-1d
6
Chicago Bears
CHI
Bears
HOME+0.0318.9—
7
San Francisco 49ers
SF
49ers
HOME+0.0098.6+1d
8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB
Buccaneers
AWAY-0.0118.4—
9
Cincinnati Bengals
CIN
Bengals
HOME-0.0697.2—
10
Kansas City Chiefs
KC
Chiefs
HOME+0.0289.0—
12
Minnesota Vikings
MIN
Vikings
AWAY-0.0088.2+7d
13
Detroit Lions
DET
Lions
HOME+0.0469.8-3d
14
Cleveland Browns
CLE
Browns
AWAY-0.0478.0—
15
Washington Commanders
WAS
Commanders
AWAY-0.0696.9—
16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB
Buccaneers
HOME-0.0118.4—
17
New Orleans Saints
NO
Saints
HOME-0.0158.8—
18
Carolina Panthers
CAR
Panthers
AWAY-0.0537.1—

HOW THE MODEL DID ON ATL IN 2025

GRADED PICKS · 2025 SEASON
9-8
MODEL ON ATL GAMES
3-3
WHEN WE BACKED THEM
6-5
WHEN WE FADED THEM
8-9
ATL 2025 RECORD
Every one of these picks is graded on the ATL team page, game by game.
ALL 2026 PROJECTIONSATL ANALYTICS2025 STANDINGSMETHODOLOGY
NOTE
Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule. Team strength starts at half of final-2025 net EPA/play with offseason noise added; it does not yet know about free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Full details on the methodology page.