How many games are the Vikings projected to win in 2026?

8.2 wins on average across 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule, with an 80% range of 5 to 11 wins.

What are the Vikings' 2026 playoff odds?

34% to make the playoffs, 14% to win the NFC North, and 1.4% to win the Super Bowl.

How hard is the Vikings' 2026 schedule?

The 10th-hardest in the league by average opponent strength, with the toughest stretch coming in weeks 8-10 (Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers).

Minnesota Vikings 2026 Win Total Projection: 8.2 Wins · Playoff Odds 34%

WIN DISTRIBUTION

P(EXACT WIN TOTAL) ACROSS 10,000 SIMS

AMBER = 80% RANGE (5–11 WINS)

PLAYOFF SEED ODDS

NFC SEEDS 1–7

#1 (BYE)2.9%

#2 SEED4.0%

#3 SEED3.8%

#4 SEED2.9%

#5 SEED5.9%

#6 SEED7.0%

#7 SEED7.8%

MISS65.6%

2026 SCHEDULE

10TH-HARDEST SLATE · OPP RATING = REGRESSED 2025 EPA

HARDEST STRETCH

Weeks 8–10

Lions · Bills · Packers

REST EDGES (3+ DAYS)

2 edges · 1 deficit

Rested: wk 7, 15. Short: wk 12.

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

10th hardest of 32

Avg opponent rating +0.006 EPA/play

WK	OPPONENT	SITE	OPP RATING	OPP PROJ W	REST
1	GB Packers	HOME	+0.041	9.2	—
2	CHI Bears	AWAY	+0.031	8.9	—
3	TB Buccaneers	AWAY	-0.011	8.4	—
4	MIA Dolphins	HOME	-0.052	7.0	—
5	NO Saints	AWAY	-0.015	8.8	+1d
7	IND Colts	HOME	+0.034	9.5	+7d
8	DET Lions	AWAY	+0.046	9.8	—
9	BUF Bills	HOME	+0.076	10.0	—
10	GB Packers	AWAY	+0.041	9.2	-1d
11	SF 49ers	AWAY	+0.009	8.6	—
12	ATL Falcons	HOME	-0.009	8.6	-7d
13	CAR Panthers	HOME	-0.053	7.1	+1d
14	NE Patriots	AWAY	+0.103	10.7	—
15	DET Lions	HOME	+0.046	9.8	+3d
16	WAS Commanders	HOME	-0.069	6.9	—
17	NYJ Jets	AWAY	-0.137	5.3	—
18	CHI Bears	HOME	+0.031	8.9	—

HOW THE MODEL DID ON MIN IN 2025

GRADED PICKS · 2025 SEASON

11-6

MODEL ON MIN GAMES

4-1

WHEN WE BACKED THEM

7-5

WHEN WE FADED THEM

9-8

MIN 2025 RECORD

Every one of these picks is graded on the MIN team page, game by game.

ALL 2026 PROJECTIONS MIN ANALYTICS 2025 STANDINGS METHODOLOGY

NOTE

Offseason priors from 10,000 simulations of the real 2026 schedule. Team strength starts at half of final-2025 net EPA/play with offseason noise added; it does not yet know about free agency, the draft, or injuries. In-season odds take over in September. Full details on the methodology page.