MIN @ CHI – Week 2 2026
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 2 · 2026 SEASON
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: CHI 64%Projected margin: -2.8
CHI
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
-2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.116Offense EPA / play+0.080
-0.100Defense EPA / play+0.018
42.6%Offense success %45.8%
41.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors CHI (B-tier, 64% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
CHI is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
DRIVE EFF
CHI scores 1.9 points per drive vs 1.3 for MIN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for CHI. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
J.Nailor29 rec · 444 yd · 4 TD
T.Hockenson51 rec · 438 yd · 3 TD
VS
1,632PASSyds3,942
1,487RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW18 2026 | — | MIN | — |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CHI
Who is favored in Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears?
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 2.8. The market has CHI at -3.5.
When do the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears play?
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears game?
Chicago Bears, 19-17 in Week 11 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Minnesota Vikings or the Chicago Bears?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: MIN -0.016 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
