Vikings vs Bears – Week 2 2026
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
9@3
MIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 9, Chicago Bears 3.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: CHI 63%Our line: CHI -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.111Net EPA / play+0.008
-0.099 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
-0.210 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
35.9% (32)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but MIN won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 10.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
K.Murray662 yd · 2 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.6. The market has CHI at -4.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 9, CHI 3. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at -4.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 2, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 0.1 above the market, which our board calls an push.
Week 2 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 19, MIN 17 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.111 against CHI +0.008.
