MIN @ CHI – Week 1 2025
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
27@24
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 74%Our line: MIN -8.7
MIN
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.7
OUR LINE
-284
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.116Offense EPA / play+0.080
-0.100Defense EPA / play+0.018
42.6%Offense success %45.8%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 8.7. Actual: 3. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -112 | -108 |
| Our fair price | -284 | +284 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5 SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1 SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
| MIN@CHIW6 2023 | MIN 19, CHI 13 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIN by 8.7. The market has MIN at -1.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 19, MIN 17 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: MIN -0.016 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
