2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIN @ CHI – Week 1 2025
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
27@24
MIN +3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER A
PICK: MIN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: MIN 74%Projected margin: -6.4
MIN
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
-6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 3. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9SEASON PPR
CHI
C.Williams
QB
318.2SEASON PPR
D.Swift
RB
228.6SEASON PPR
D.Moore
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
| MIN@CHIW6 2023 | MIN 19, CHI 13 | MIN | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES