Vikings vs Bears – Week 1 2025
MIN
CHI
MIN
AWAY
27@24
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 27, Chicago Bears 24.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Vikings, 1 Bears.
Model confidence: MIN 74%Our line: MIN -8.7
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -8.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
74%
MIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
50%
DIFFERENCE
+24%
| SOURCE | MIN | CHI | MIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -112 | -108 | 50.5% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.080 (8)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (19)
42.6% (23)Offense success %45.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 8.7. Actual: 3. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW12 2023 | CHI 12, MIN 10 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs CHI
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 74% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIN by 8.7. The market has MIN at -1.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 27, CHI 24. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 74% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -1.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 1, the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: MIN -0.016 against CHI +0.061.
