Chiefs vs Chargers – Week 1 2025
KC
LAC
KC
AWAY
21@27
LAC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 21, Los Angeles Chargers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 60%Our line: KC -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
KC · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
| SOURCE | KC | LAC | KC WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +145 | 61.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
+0.055Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.035 (11)Offense EPA / play-0.024 (25)
-0.020 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.083 (7)
44.5% (14)Offense success %43.1% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LAC won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 9.5 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW6 2026 | LAC 6, KC 22 | KC | W |
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs LAC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 3.5. The market has KC at -3.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, KC 21, LAC 27. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 1, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, FRI 8:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, LAC 6, KC 22 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: KC +0.055 against LAC +0.059.
