2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ LAC – Week 1 2025
KC
LAC
KC
AWAY
21@27
LAC +6
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 60%Projected margin: -0.1
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LAC won. Projected margin was 0.1 -- the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
| LAC@KCW7 2023 | LAC 17, KC 31 | KC | W |
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES