DAL @ PHI – Week 1 2025
DAL
PHI
DAL
AWAY
20@24
PHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
Model confidence: PHI 72%Our line: PHI -7.7
PHI
PICK SIDE
-8.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.7
OUR LINE
-251
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.070Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.097Offense EPA / play+0.026
+0.167Defense EPA / play-0.079
46.6%Offense success %43.1%
48.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 4. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +330 | -425 |
| Our fair price | +251 | -251 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PHI -8.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.29
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-6%
Both figures are for PHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8 SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9 SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott4552 yd · 30 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams1201 yd · 11 TD
M.Davis250 yd · 2 TD
D.Prescott177 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens93 rec · 1429 yd · 9 TD
C.Lamb75 rec · 1077 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs PHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 72% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.7. The market has PHI at -8.5.
Week 1 of the 2025 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: DAL -0.070 against PHI +0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
