Cowboys vs Eagles – Week 1 2025
DAL
PHI
DAL
AWAY
20@24
PHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 1
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, Philadelphia Eagles 24.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 72%Our line: PHI -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -7.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
PHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
79%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
| SOURCE | DAL | PHI | PHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +330 | -425 | 78.8% |
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 1
-0.070Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.097 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
+0.167 (32)Defense EPA / play-0.079 (8)
46.6% (6)Offense success %43.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 7.7. Actual: 4. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 1
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW17 2024 | DAL 7, PHI 41 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 1 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 72% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 7.7. The market has PHI at -8.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, DAL 20, PHI 24. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -8.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 1 of the 2025 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: DAL -0.070 against PHI +0.105.
