2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ PHI – Week 17 2024
DAL
PHI
DAL
AWAY
7@41
PHI +34
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PHI 68%Projected margin: 5.3
PHI
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
5.3
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 5.3. Actual: 34. Off by 28.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 26.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -325 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
152.0SEASON PPR
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES