Cowboys vs Eagles – Week 17 2024
DAL
PHI
DAL
AWAY
7@41
PHI BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 7, Philadelphia Eagles 41.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Cowboys, 4 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 68%Our line: PHI -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -6.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.212
-0.109 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.114 (6)
+0.083 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.098 (2)
40.6% (23)Offense success %45.3% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 34. Off by 27.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 26.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@DALW12 2025 | PHI 21, DAL 24 | PHI | L |
| DAL@PHIW1 2025 | DAL 20, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW10 2024 | PHI 34, DAL 6 | PHI | W |
| PHI@DALW14 2023 | PHI 13, DAL 33 | DAL | W |
| DAL@PHIW9 2023 | DAL 23, PHI 28 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 6.3. The market has PHI at -7.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, DAL 7, PHI 41. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -7.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 17, the Dallas Cowboys were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 8.3 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, PHI 21, DAL 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: DAL -0.192 against PHI +0.212.
