Colts vs Giants – Week 17 2024
IND
NYG
IND
AWAY
33@45
NYG BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 33, New York Giants 45.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Giants.
Model confidence: IND 72%Our line: IND -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -7.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.061Net EPA / play-0.170
-0.057 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
+0.004 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
40.2% (28)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but NYG won. Projected margin was 7.7, the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NYGW17 2022 | IND 10, NYG 38 | NYG | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs NYG
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 7.7. The market has IND at -7.5.
New York Giants won, IND 33, NYG 45. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -7.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 17, the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.4, 3.9 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, IND 10, NYG 38 in Week 17 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.061 against NYG -0.170.
