IND @ NYG – Week 17 2024
IND
NYG
IND
AWAY
33@45
NYG BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: IND 72%Our line: IND -7.7
IND
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.7
OUR LINE
-253
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.061Net EPA / play-0.170
-0.057Offense EPA / play-0.107
+0.004Defense EPA / play+0.063
40.2%Offense success %40.5%
43.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
IND A-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but NYG won. Projected margin was 7.7, the model overestimated by 19.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 19.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | IND | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -410 | +320 |
| Our fair price | -253 | +253 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD IND -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for IND. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2 SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
A.Richardson1814 yd · 8 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Taylor1431 yd · 11 TD
A.Richardson499 yd · 6 TD
T.Sermon159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
A.Pierce37 rec · 824 yd · 7 TD
M.Pittman69 rec · 808 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@NYGW17 2022 | IND 10, NYG 38 | NYG | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project IND by 7.7. The market has IND at -7.5.
The model projects 44.4 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, IND 10, NYG 38 in Week 17 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Indianapolis Colts: IND -0.061 against NYG -0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
