Broncos vs Bengals – Week 17 2024
DEN
CIN
DEN
AWAY
24@30
CIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 24, Cincinnati Bengals 30.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bengals.
Model confidence: DEN 60%Our line: DEN -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -3.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.053
+0.020 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.090 (7)
-0.118 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (22)
42.7% (17)Offense success %47.2% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 3.5, the model overestimated by 9.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DENW4 2025 | CIN 3, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| CIN@DENW15 2021 | CIN 15, DEN 10 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CIN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.5. The market has DEN at +3.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, DEN 24, CIN 30. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at +3.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 17, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 50.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 4.3 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SAT 4:30 PM.
Denver Broncos, CIN 3, DEN 28 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against CIN +0.053.
