2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ CIN – Week 17 2024
DEN
CIN
DEN
AWAY
24@30
CIN +6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
CIN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 60%Projected margin: -0.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
-0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but CIN won. Projected margin was 0.7 -- the model overestimated by 6.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +145 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
60°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEN
B.Nix
QB
317.2SEASON PPR
C.Sutton
WR
240.3SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
157.9SEASON PPR
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DENW4 2025 | CIN 3, DEN 28 | DEN | W |
| CIN@DENW15 2021 | CIN 15, DEN 10 | DEN | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES