Raiders vs Saints – Week 17 2024
LV
NO
LV
AWAY
25@10
LV BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 25, New Orleans Saints 10.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 4 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 63%Our line: NO -4.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NO +2.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -4.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.101
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (25)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (24)
40.5% (26)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but LV won. Projected margin was 4.5, the model overestimated by 19.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW3 2026 | LV 35, NO 27 | NO | L |
| LV@NOW8 2022 | LV 0, NO 24 | LV | L |
| NO@LVW2 2020 | NO 24, LV 34 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 4.5. The market has NO at +2.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 25, NO 10. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at +2.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 2.0 points.
In Week 17, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 8.7 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 35, NO 27 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: LV -0.164 against NO -0.101.
