2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ NO – Week 17 2024
LV
NO
LV
AWAY
25@10
LV +15
FINAL · WEEK 17
2024 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NO
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NO 63%Projected margin: 2.7
NO
PICK SIDE
+2.0
SPREAD
2.7
PROJ MARGIN
+133
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but LV won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 17.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | +133 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +105 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LV
B.Bowers
TE
262.7SEASON PPR
J.Meyers
WR
218.0SEASON PPR
A.Mattison
RB
137.4SEASON PPR
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW8 2022 | LV 0, NO 24 | LV | L |
| NO@LVW2 2020 | NO 24, LV 34 | NO | L |
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES