LV @ NO – Week 8 2022
LV
NO
LV
AWAY
0@24
NO BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
Model confidence: LV 59%Our line: LV -3.0
LV
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.000Offense EPA / play-0.038
+0.064Defense EPA / play-0.056
43.1%Offense success %45.7%
47.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but NO won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 27.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -119 | +108 |
| Our fair price | -143 | +143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LV -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
53%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for LV. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3 SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
219.1 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs1653 yd · 12 TD
Derek Carr102 yd · 0 TD
Jarrett Stidham84 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Davante Adams100 rec · 1516 yd · 14 TD
Mack Hollins57 rec · 690 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW17 2024 | LV 25, NO 10 | NO | L |
| NO@LVW2 2020 | NO 24, LV 34 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NO
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 3.0. The market has LV at -1.0.
The model projects 47.8 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 25, NO 10 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: LV -0.064 against NO +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
