Raiders vs Saints – Week 8 2022
LV
NO
LV
AWAY
0@24
NO BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 0, New Orleans Saints 24.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints.
Model confidence: LV 59%Our line: LV -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.018
+0.000 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.038 (21)
+0.064 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.056 (6)
43.1% (21)Offense success %45.7% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but NO won. Projected margin was 3.0, the model overestimated by 27.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW3 2026 | LV 35, NO 27 | NO | L |
| LV@NOW17 2024 | LV 25, NO 10 | NO | L |
| NO@LVW2 2020 | NO 24, LV 34 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NO
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LV by 3.0. The market has LV at -1.0.
New Orleans Saints won, LV 0, NO 24. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -1.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 8, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 0.7 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 35, NO 27 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New Orleans Saints: LV -0.064 against NO +0.018.
