2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ NO – Week 8 2022
LV
NO
LV
AWAY
0@24
NO +24
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LV
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LV 59%Projected margin: -1.2
LV
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-1.2
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV C-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LV but NO won. Projected margin was 1.2 -- the model overestimated by 25.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -119 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NO
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
219.1SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
211.7SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
198.2SEASON PPR
Andy Dalton
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@NOW17 2024 | LV 25, NO 10 | NO | L |
| NO@LVW2 2020 | NO 24, LV 34 | NO | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES