49ers vs Rams – Week 8 2022
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
31@14
SF BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 31, Los Angeles Rams 14.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 61%Our line: LA -3.7
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -3.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.211Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.085 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (29)
-0.126 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (24)
46.2% (6)Offense success %41.0% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 20.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
LA
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
238.4 SEASON PPR
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
200.5 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo2437 yd · 16 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk78 rec · 1015 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 3.7. The market has LA at +1.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 31, LA 14. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +1.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 8, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 4.9 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.211 against LA -0.105.
