DEN @ JAX – Week 8 2022
DEN
JAX
DEN
AWAY
21@17
DEN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 56%Our line: JAX -2.1
JAX
PICK SIDE
-1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.1
OUR LINE
-128
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.060Net EPA / play+0.067
-0.109Offense EPA / play+0.046
-0.049Defense EPA / play-0.021
38.1%Offense success %46.3%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -103 | -107 |
| Our fair price | +128 | -128 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
50%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8 SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2 SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
159.4 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
Courtland Sutton64 rec · 829 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.1. The market has JAX at -1.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 34, DEN 20 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: DEN -0.060 against JAX +0.067.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
