2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ JAX – Week 8 2022
DEN
JAX
DEN
AWAY
21@17
DEN +4
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 56%Projected margin: 0.2
JAX
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
0.2
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but DEN won. Projected margin was 0.2 -- the model overestimated by 4.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -107 | Lost · -$1.00 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
159.4SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES