Broncos vs Jaguars – Week 8 2022
DEN
JAX
DEN
AWAY
21@17
DEN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 8
2022 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 21, Jacksonville Jaguars 17.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Broncos, 3 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 56%Our line: JAX -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -2.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.060Net EPA / play+0.067
-0.109 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (8)
-0.049 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.021 (13)
38.1% (31)Offense success %46.3% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but DEN won. Projected margin was 2.1, the model overestimated by 6.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW2 2026 | JAX 13, DEN 20 | JAX | L |
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW2 2021 | DEN 23, JAX 13 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.1. The market has JAX at -1.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 21, JAX 17. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -1.0, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 8, the Denver Broncos were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 5.0 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2022 season, SUN 9:30 AM.
Denver Broncos, JAX 13, DEN 20 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: DEN -0.060 against JAX +0.067.
