DEN @ JAX – Week 2 2021
DEN
JAX
DEN
AWAY
23@13
DEN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -5.0
DEN
PICK SIDE
-6.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.0
OUR LINE
-181
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.004Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.015Offense EPA / play-0.088
+0.011Defense EPA / play+0.118
44.7%Offense success %44.0%
45.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 10. Off by 5.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -241 | +211 |
| Our fair price | -181 | +181 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -6.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.42
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
69%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon918 yd · 8 TD
Javonte Williams903 yd · 4 TD
Teddy Bridgewater106 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Courtland Sutton58 rec · 776 yd · 2 TD
Tim Patrick53 rec · 734 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DEN by 5.0. The market has DEN at -6.0.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 34, DEN 20 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.004 against JAX -0.206.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
