2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ JAX – Week 2 2021
DEN
JAX
DEN
AWAY
23@13
DEN +10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DEN 64%Projected margin: -7.2
DEN
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-7.2
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 7.2. Actual: 10 points. The model was within 2.8 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES