Broncos vs Jaguars – Week 2 2021
DEN
JAX
DEN
AWAY
23@13
DEN BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 23, Jacksonville Jaguars 13.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: DEN 64%Our line: DEN -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -5.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
69%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
| SOURCE | DEN | JAX | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -241 | +211 | 69.3% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.004Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.015 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (26)
+0.011 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (31)
44.7% (14)Offense success %44.0% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 5.0. Actual: 10. Off by 5.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEN
204.9 SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7 SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
RB
195.1 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3052 yd · 18 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DENW2 2026 | JAX 13, DEN 20 | JAX | L |
| JAX@DENW16 2025 | JAX 34, DEN 20 | DEN | L |
| DEN@JAXW8 2022 | DEN 21, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs JAX
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DEN by 5.0. The market has DEN at -6.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 23, JAX 13. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -6.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 2, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, JAX 13, DEN 20 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.004 against JAX -0.206.
