DET @ GB – Week 2 2021
DET
GB
DET
AWAY
17@35
GB BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 74%Our line: GB -8.5
GB
PICK SIDE
-11.5
MARKET SPREAD
-8.5
OUR LINE
-277
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.161Net EPA / play+0.127
-0.063Offense EPA / play+0.134
+0.098Defense EPA / play+0.006
42.0%Offense success %48.6%
46.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 8.5. Actual: 18. Off by 9.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +400 | -494 |
| Our fair price | +277 | -277 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -11.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.19
OUR NUMBER
74%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
81%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
194.5 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff3245 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
D'Andre Swift617 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams601 yd · 3 TD
Craig Reynolds230 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown90 rec · 912 yd · 5 TD
T.J. Hockenson61 rec · 583 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB@DETW13 2025 | GB 31, DET 24 | DET | L |
| DET@GBW1 2025 | DET 13, GB 27 | DET | L |
| GB@DETW14 2024 | GB 31, DET 34 | DET | W |
| DET@GBW9 2024 | DET 24, GB 14 | GB | L |
| GB@DETW12 2023 | GB 29, DET 22 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 74% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 8.5. The market has GB at -11.5.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Green Bay Packers, GB 31, DET 24 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: DET -0.161 against GB +0.127.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
