Giants vs Commanders – Week 2 2021
NYG
WAS
NYG
AWAY
29@30
WAS BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 29, Washington Commanders 30.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Giants.
Model confidence: WAS 56%Our line: WAS -1.9
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -1.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
WAS · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
65%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
| SOURCE | NYG | WAS | WAS WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +176 | -198 | 65.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.124
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (21)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.067 (26)
39.3% (30)Offense success %43.9% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected WAS by 1.9. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@WASW5 2026 | NYG 27, WAS 27 | NYG | P |
| WAS@NYGW15 2025 | WAS 29, NYG 21 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW1 2025 | NYG 6, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
| WAS@NYGW9 2024 | WAS 27, NYG 22 | WAS | W |
| NYG@WASW2 2024 | NYG 18, WAS 21 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 1.9. The market has WAS at -4.0.
Washington Commanders won, NYG 29, WAS 30. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at -4.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 2, the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
They tied, NYG 27, WAS 27 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Washington Commanders: NYG -0.192 against WAS -0.124.
