NE @ NYJ – Week 2 2021
NE
NYJ
NE
AWAY
25@6
NE BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
Model confidence: NE 59%Our line: NE -2.9
NE
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.9
OUR LINE
-141
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.135Net EPA / play-0.220
+0.069Offense EPA / play-0.092
-0.066Defense EPA / play+0.128
48.4%Offense success %41.6%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 19. Off by 16.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -235 | +207 |
| Our fair price | -141 | +141 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
NYJ
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NE
Mac Jones
QB
224.9 SEASON PPR
Damien Harris
RB
210.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
186.3 SEASON PPR
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones3801 yd · 22 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris929 yd · 15 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson606 yd · 5 TD
Brandon Bolden226 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers83 rec · 866 yd · 2 TD
Kendrick Bourne55 rec · 800 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@NYJW17 2025 | NE 42, NYJ 10 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW11 2025 | NYJ 14, NE 27 | NE | W |
| NYJ@NEW8 2024 | NYJ 22, NE 25 | NYJ | L |
| NE@NYJW3 2024 | NE 3, NYJ 24 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@NEW18 2023 | NYJ 17, NE 3 | NE | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs NYJ
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 2.9. The market has NE at -5.5.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 42, NYJ 10 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.135 against NYJ -0.220.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
