MIN @ ARI – Week 2 2021
MIN
ARI
MIN
AWAY
33@34
ARI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 56%Our line: ARI -1.9
ARI
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-1.9
OUR LINE
-125
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.122
+0.017Offense EPA / play+0.073
-0.018Defense EPA / play-0.049
41.4%Offense success %46.8%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 1.9. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -191 |
| Our fair price | +125 | -125 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIN
Justin Jefferson
WR
330.4 SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
300.3 SEASON PPR
Dalvin Cook
RB
206.3 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
Kirk Cousins4221 yd · 33 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Dalvin Cook1159 yd · 6 TD
Alexander Mattison491 yd · 3 TD
Kirk Cousins115 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Justin Jefferson108 rec · 1616 yd · 10 TD
Adam Thielen67 rec · 726 yd · 10 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@MINW13 2024 | ARI 22, MIN 23 | MIN | W |
| ARI@MINW8 2022 | ARI 26, MIN 34 | MIN | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 1.9. The market has ARI at -4.0.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, ARI 22, MIN 23 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: MIN +0.035 against ARI +0.122.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
