Vikings vs Cardinals – Week 2 2021
MIN
ARI
MIN
AWAY
33@34
ARI BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 33, Arizona Cardinals 34.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Vikings, 1 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 56%Our line: ARI -1.9
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -1.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
ARI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
| SOURCE | MIN | ARI | ARI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +170 | -191 | 64.3% |
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.122
+0.017 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.073 (9)
-0.018 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (6)
41.4% (24)Offense success %46.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 1.9. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
No noteworthy trends
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@MINW13 2024 | ARI 22, MIN 23 | MIN | W |
| ARI@MINW8 2022 | ARI 26, MIN 34 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs ARI
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 1.9. The market has ARI at -4.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, MIN 33, ARI 34. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -4.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 2, the Minnesota Vikings were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, ARI 22, MIN 23 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: MIN +0.035 against ARI +0.122.
