Saints vs Panthers – Week 2 2021
NO
CAR
NO
AWAY
7@26
CAR BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 7, Carolina Panthers 26.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 67%Our line: NO -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
NO · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
58%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
| SOURCE | NO | CAR | NO WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -145 | +131 | 57.9% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.093
-0.074 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.138 (30)
-0.109 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.044 (7)
40.6% (28)Offense success %40.9% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but CAR won. Projected margin was 5.8, the model overestimated by 24.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CAR
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 5.8. The market has NO at -3.0.
Carolina Panthers won, NO 7, CAR 26. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the New Orleans Saints were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.035 against CAR -0.093.
