NO @ CAR – Week 2 2021
NO
CAR
NO
AWAY
7@26
CAR BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: NO 67%Our line: NO -5.8
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.8
OUR LINE
-199
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.093
-0.074Offense EPA / play-0.138
-0.109Defense EPA / play-0.044
40.6%Offense success %40.9%
39.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NO but CAR won. Projected margin was 5.8, the model overestimated by 24.8 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 22.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -145 | +131 |
| Our fair price | -199 | +199 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
58%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
83°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7 SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8 SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara898 yd · 4 TD
Mark Ingram260 yd · 1 TD
Jameis Winston166 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
Deonte Harty36 rec · 570 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 5.8. The market has NO at -3.0.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.035 against CAR -0.093.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
