2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ CLE – Week 2 2021
HOU
CLE
HOU
AWAY
21@31
CLE +10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CLE
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 60%Projected margin: 4.7
CLE
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 4.7. Actual: 10. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.14 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
215.3SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
180.9SEASON PPR
Jarvis Landry
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@HOUW16 2023 | CLE 36, HOU 22 | CLE | W |
| CLE@HOUW13 2022 | CLE 27, HOU 14 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW10 2020 | HOU 7, CLE 10 | CLE | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES