Texans vs Browns – Week 2 2021
HOU
CLE
HOU
AWAY
21@31
CLE BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 21, Cleveland Browns 31.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 2 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 60%Our line: CLE -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -13.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -3.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
CLE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
85%
DIFFERENCE
-25%
| SOURCE | HOU | CLE | CLE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +521 | -675 | 85.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.212Net EPA / play+0.012
-0.138 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.013 (18)
+0.074 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.001 (14)
37.4% (32)Offense success %43.9% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 10. Off by 6.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
CLE
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills2664 yd · 16 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Rex Burkhead427 yd · 3 TD
Mark Ingram294 yd · 1 TD
David Johnson228 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks90 rec · 1037 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@HOUW16 2023 | CLE 36, HOU 22 | CLE | W |
| CLE@HOUW13 2022 | CLE 27, HOU 14 | CLE | W |
| HOU@CLEW10 2020 | HOU 7, CLE 10 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 3.5. The market has CLE at -13.5.
Cleveland Browns won, HOU 21, CLE 31. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -13.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 13.5 points.
In Week 2, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 36, HOU 22 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Cleveland Browns: HOU -0.212 against CLE +0.012.
