49ers vs Eagles – Week 2 2021
SF
PHI
SF
AWAY
17@11
SF BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 17, Philadelphia Eagles 11.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 1 Eagles.
Model confidence: SF 54%Our line: SF -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -1.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
SF · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
58%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
| SOURCE | SF | PHI | SF WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -144 | +130 | 57.8% |
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.120Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.087 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (10)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (17)
45.7% (12)Offense success %46.9% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 6. Off by 4.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
339.0 SEASON PPR
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB
227.5 SEASON PPR
198.0 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Jimmy Garoppolo3810 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@PHIW13 2023 | SF 42, PHI 19 | PHI | L |
| PHI@SFW4 2020 | PHI 25, SF 20 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs PHI
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 1.3. The market has SF at -3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 17, PHI 11. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 42, PHI 19 in Week 13 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.120 against PHI +0.059.
