Raiders vs Steelers – Week 2 2021
LV
PIT
LV
AWAY
26@17
LV BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Raiders, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 60%Our line: PIT -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
PIT · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
68%
DIFFERENCE
-8%
| SOURCE | LV | PIT | PIT WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +201 | -228 | 68.1% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.090
-0.019 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
+0.045 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
44.9% (13)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but LV won. Projected margin was 3.6, the model overestimated by 12.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4804 yd · 23 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
Hunter Renfrow103 rec · 1038 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW6 2024 | PIT 32, LV 13 | PIT | W |
| PIT@LVW3 2023 | PIT 23, LV 18 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW16 2022 | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.6. The market has PIT at -5.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 26, PIT 17. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -5.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 2, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 32, LV 13 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.064 against PIT -0.090.
