2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ PIT – Week 2 2021
LV
PIT
LV
AWAY
26@17
LV +9
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 60%Projected margin: 2.6
PIT
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
2.6
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but LV won. Projected margin was 2.6 -- the model overestimated by 11.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0SEASON PPR
PIT
Najee Harris
RB
300.7SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
274.4SEASON PPR
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW6 2024 | PIT 32, LV 13 | PIT | W |
| PIT@LVW3 2023 | PIT 23, LV 18 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW16 2022 | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES