LV @ PIT – Week 2 2021
LV
PIT
LV
AWAY
26@17
LV BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 2
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 60%Our line: PIT -3.6
PIT
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.6
OUR LINE
-153
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.090
-0.019Offense EPA / play-0.074
+0.045Defense EPA / play+0.016
44.9%Offense success %39.1%
43.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but LV won. Projected margin was 3.6, the model overestimated by 12.6 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 14.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LV | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +201 | -228 |
| Our fair price | +153 | -153 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1 SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0 SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
226.0 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4804 yd · 23 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Josh Jacobs872 yd · 9 TD
Kenyan Drake254 yd · 2 TD
Peyton Barber212 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Hunter Renfrow103 rec · 1038 yd · 9 TD
Darren Waller55 rec · 665 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW6 2024 | PIT 32, LV 13 | PIT | W |
| PIT@LVW3 2023 | PIT 23, LV 18 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW16 2022 | LV 10, PIT 13 | PIT | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs PIT
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.6. The market has PIT at -5.5.
Week 2 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 32, LV 13 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.064 against PIT -0.090.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
