Raiders vs Steelers – Week 16 2022
LV
PIT
LV
AWAY
10@13
PIT BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 10, Pittsburgh Steelers 13.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: PIT 58%Our line: PIT -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -2.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.012
+0.000 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (12)
+0.064 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (26)
43.1% (21)Offense success %45.1% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 2.6. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
HIGH WIND
21 MPH winds and 9°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
9°F
WIND
21 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr3522 yd · 24 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LVW6 2024 | PIT 32, LV 13 | PIT | W |
| PIT@LVW3 2023 | PIT 23, LV 18 | PIT | W |
| LV@PITW2 2021 | LV 26, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 2.6. The market has PIT at -2.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, LV 10, PIT 13. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 16, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.1, 5.6 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 8:15 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 32, LV 13 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: LV -0.064 against PIT -0.012.
