DET @ CAR – Week 16 2022
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
23@37
CAR BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: DET 67%Our line: DET -5.9
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.9
OUR LINE
-202
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.006Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.072Offense EPA / play-0.035
+0.078Defense EPA / play+0.003
45.6%Offense success %40.7%
46.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CAR won. Projected margin was 5.9, the model overestimated by 19.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
COLD GAME
20°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -129 | +117 |
| Our fair price | -202 | +202 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
20°F
WIND
12 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
Jared Goff
QB
284.3 SEASON PPR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
267.6 SEASON PPR
Jamaal Williams
RB
225.9 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Jared Goff4438 yd · 29 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Jamaal Williams1066 yd · 17 TD
D'Andre Swift542 yd · 5 TD
Justin Jackson170 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Amon-Ra St. Brown106 rec · 1161 yd · 6 TD
Kalif Raymond47 rec · 616 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW11 2020 | DET 0, CAR 20 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.9. The market has DET at -2.5.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 43.5.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, CAR 24, DET 42 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: DET -0.006 against CAR -0.037.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
