Lions vs Panthers – Week 16 2022
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
23@37
CAR BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 23, Carolina Panthers 37.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 67%Our line: DET -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -5.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.006Net EPA / play-0.037
+0.072 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (20)
+0.078 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
45.6% (9)Offense success %40.7% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CAR won. Projected margin was 5.9, the model overestimated by 19.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
COLD GAME
20°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
20°F
WIND
12 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CARW4 2026 | DET 26, CAR 32 | DET | L |
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW11 2020 | DET 0, CAR 20 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CAR
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 5.9. The market has DET at -2.5.
Carolina Panthers won, DET 23, CAR 37. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -2.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 16, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.1 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DET 26, CAR 32 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Detroit Lions: DET -0.006 against CAR -0.037.
