2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ CAR – Week 16 2022
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
23@37
CAR +14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 67%Projected margin: -3.4
DET
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.4
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CAR won. Projected margin was 3.4 -- the model overestimated by 17.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 16.5 points.
COLD GAME
20°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -129 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
20°F
WIND
12 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DET
Jared Goff
QB
284.3SEASON PPR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
267.6SEASON PPR
Jamaal Williams
RB
225.9SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW11 2020 | DET 0, CAR 20 | DET | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES