Packers vs Dolphins – Week 16 2022
GB
MIA
GB
AWAY
26@20
GB BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 26, Miami Dolphins 20.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: GB 57%Our line: GB -2.5
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -2.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.034Net EPA / play+0.039
+0.003 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.047 (7)
+0.037 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.008 (20)
45.8% (7)Offense success %44.5% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 2.5. Actual: 6. Off by 3.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@GBW13 2024 | MIA 17, GB 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs MIA
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 2.5. The market has GB at +3.5.
Green Bay Packers won, GB 26, MIA 20. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +3.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 16, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 2.3 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, MIA 17, GB 30 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: GB -0.034 against MIA +0.039.
