Bengals vs Patriots – Week 16 2022
CIN
NE
CIN
AWAY
22@18
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 22, New England Patriots 18.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bengals, 3 Patriots.
Model confidence: CIN 65%Our line: CIN -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -5.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.125Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.077 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.054 (24)
-0.048 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.089 (3)
47.3% (4)Offense success %40.9% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 5.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
COLD GAME
21°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
21°F
WIND
2 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CINW12 2025 | NE 26, CIN 20 | NE | W |
| NE@CINW1 2024 | NE 16, CIN 10 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NE
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.4. The market has CIN at -3.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 22, NE 18. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.0, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 16, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 6.0 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 26, CIN 20 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against NE +0.035.
