CIN @ NE – Week 16 2022
CIN
NE
CIN
AWAY
22@18
CIN BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: CIN 65%Our line: CIN -5.4
CIN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.4
OUR LINE
-189
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.125Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.077Offense EPA / play-0.054
-0.048Defense EPA / play-0.089
47.3%Offense success %40.9%
41.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CIN by 5.4. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
COLD GAME
21°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -151 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -189 | +189 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CIN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for CIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
21°F
WIND
2 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CIN
Joe Burrow
QB
350.7 SEASON PPR
Ja'Marr Chase
WR
242.4 SEASON PPR
Joe Mixon
RB
239.5 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow4475 yd · 35 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon814 yd · 7 TD
Samaje Perine394 yd · 2 TD
Joe Burrow257 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Ja'Marr Chase87 rec · 1046 yd · 9 TD
Tee Higgins74 rec · 1029 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@CINW12 2025 | NE 26, CIN 20 | NE | W |
| NE@CINW1 2024 | NE 16, CIN 10 | CIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.4. The market has CIN at -3.0.
The model projects 48.0 combined points. The market total is 42.0.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 26, CIN 20 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.125 against NE +0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
