Chargers vs Colts – Week 16 2022
LAC
IND
LAC
AWAY
20@3
LAC BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 20, Indianapolis Colts 3.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: LAC 67%Our line: LAC -6.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -6.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.141
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
44.1% (18)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 17. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@LACW7 2025 | IND 38, LAC 24 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs IND
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 6.0. The market has LAC at -3.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 20, IND 3. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -3.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 16, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 0.8 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2022 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 38, LAC 24 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against IND -0.141.
