2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ NYJ – Week 16 2022
JAX
NYJ
JAX
AWAY
19@3
JAX +16
FINAL · WEEK 16
2022 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 62%Projected margin: -0.9
JAX
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 0.9. Actual: 16. Off by 15.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +123 | Won · +$1.43 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
No noteworthy trends
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
295.6SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
241.9SEASON PPR
Travis Etienne
RB
205.1SEASON PPR
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@JAXW15 2025 | NYJ 20, JAX 48 | JAX | W |
| NYJ@JAXW15 2024 | NYJ 32, JAX 25 | JAX | L |
| JAX@NYJW16 2021 | JAX 21, NYJ 26 | NYJ | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES