2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ JAX – Week 15 2025
NYJ
JAX
NYJ
AWAY
20@48
JAX +28
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER S
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 80%Projected margin: 10.4
JAX
PICK SIDE
-13.5
SPREAD
10.4
PROJ MARGIN
-698
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 10.4. Actual: 28. Off by 17.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -698 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.14 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@JAXW15 2024 | NYJ 32, JAX 25 | JAX | L |
| JAX@NYJW16 2022 | JAX 19, NYJ 3 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NYJW16 2021 | JAX 21, NYJ 26 | NYJ | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES