NYJ @ JAX – Week 15 2025
NYJ
JAX
NYJ
AWAY
20@48
JAX BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 80%Our line: JAX -11.5
JAX
PICK SIDE
-13.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.5
OUR LINE
-405
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.127Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.147Defense EPA / play-0.105
40.7%Offense success %44.4%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 11.5. Actual: 28. Off by 16.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +675 | -1050 |
| Our fair price | +405 | -405 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -13.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.14
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
88%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
70°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7 SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7 SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@JAXW15 2024 | NYJ 32, JAX 25 | JAX | L |
| JAX@NYJW16 2022 | JAX 19, NYJ 3 | JAX | W |
| JAX@NYJW16 2021 | JAX 21, NYJ 26 | NYJ | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project JAX by 11.5. The market has JAX at -13.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, NYJ 32, JAX 25 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: NYJ -0.274 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
