Lions vs Rams – Week 15 2025
DET
LA
DET
AWAY
34@41
LA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 34, Los Angeles Rams 41.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Lions.
Model confidence: LA 70%Our line: LA -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.206
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.145 (2)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.061 (9)
45.2% (12)Offense success %51.8% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LA by 7.2. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LA
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@DETW1 2024 | LA 20, DET 26 | DET | W |
| DET@LAW7 2021 | DET 19, LA 28 | LA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 7.2. The market has LA at -5.5.
Los Angeles Rams won, DET 34, LA 41. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -5.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 15, the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 8.5 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Detroit Lions, LA 20, DET 26 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: DET +0.091 against LA +0.206.
