TEN @ SF – Week 15 2025
TEN
SF
TEN
AWAY
24@37
SF BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 82%Our line: SF -12.4
SF
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-12.4
OUR LINE
-458
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.100Defense EPA / play+0.070
37.4%Offense success %48.3%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 12.4. Actual: 13 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +600 | -900 |
| Our fair price | +458 | -458 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
82%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
86%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7 SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8 SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TENW16 2021 | SF 17, TEN 20 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project SF by 12.4. The market has SF at -12.5.
The model projects 46.8 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tennessee Titans, SF 17, TEN 20 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: TEN -0.260 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
