Titans vs 49ers – Week 15 2025
TEN
SF
TEN
AWAY
24@37
SF BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 24, San Francisco 49ers 37.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Titans, 5 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 82%Our line: SF -12.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -12.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -12.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.160 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (6)
+0.100 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.070 (24)
37.4% (31)Offense success %48.3% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected SF by 12.4. Actual: 13 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@TENW16 2021 | SF 17, TEN 20 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project SF by 12.4. The market has SF at -12.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, TEN 24, SF 37. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -12.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 12.5 points.
In Week 15, the Tennessee Titans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 2.3 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Tennessee Titans, SF 17, TEN 20 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: TEN -0.260 against SF +0.018.
