Cardinals vs Texans – Week 15 2025
ARI
HOU
ARI
AWAY
20@40
HOU BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 20, Houston Texans 40.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 8 Cardinals.
Model confidence: HOU 80%Our line: HOU -11.3
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -11.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.118
-0.018 (23)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (21)
+0.088 (27)Defense EPA / play-0.131 (1)
43.0% (22)Offense success %41.3% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 11.3. Actual: 20. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW11 2023 | ARI 16, HOU 21 | HOU | W |
| HOU@ARIW7 2021 | HOU 5, ARI 31 | ARI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project HOU by 11.3. The market has HOU at -10.5.
Houston Texans won, ARI 20, HOU 40. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -10.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 15, the Arizona Cardinals were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 3.4 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, ARI 16, HOU 21 in Week 11 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: ARI -0.107 against HOU +0.118.
