2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ HOU – Week 15 2025
ARI
HOU
ARI
AWAY
20@40
HOU +20
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER S
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: HOU 80%Projected margin: 11.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
11.2
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 11.2. Actual: 20. Off by 8.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6SEASON PPR
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW11 2023 | ARI 16, HOU 21 | HOU | W |
| HOU@ARIW7 2021 | HOU 5, ARI 31 | ARI | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES