ARI @ HOU – Week 15 2025
ARI
HOU
ARI
AWAY
20@40
HOU BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 80%Our line: HOU -11.3
HOU
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.3
OUR LINE
-399
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.118
-0.018Offense EPA / play-0.013
+0.088Defense EPA / play-0.131
43.0%Offense success %41.3%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 11.3. Actual: 20. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 9.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +455 | -625 |
| Our fair price | +399 | -399 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
83%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
ARI
T.McBride
TE
315.9 SEASON PPR
J.Brissett
QB
227.4 SEASON PPR
Mi.Wilson
WR
220.6 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
J.Brissett3366 yd · 23 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
M.Carter333 yd · 1 TD
E.Demercado312 yd · 0 TD
Z.Knight269 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
T.McBride126 rec · 1239 yd · 11 TD
Mi.Wilson78 rec · 1006 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@HOUW11 2023 | ARI 16, HOU 21 | HOU | W |
| HOU@ARIW7 2021 | HOU 5, ARI 31 | ARI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 80% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project HOU by 11.3. The market has HOU at -10.5.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 42.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, ARI 16, HOU 21 in Week 11 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: ARI -0.107 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
