Browns vs Bears – Week 15 2025
CLE
CHI
CLE
AWAY
3@31
CHI BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 3, Chicago Bears 31.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 8 Browns, 2 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 81%Our line: CHI -12.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -12.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.190 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.080 (8)
-0.096 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (19)
34.5% (32)Offense success %45.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 12.0. Actual: 28. Off by 16.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
COLD GAME
8°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
8°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@CLEW15 2023 | CHI 17, CLE 20 | CLE | W |
| CHI@CLEW3 2021 | CHI 6, CLE 26 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project CHI by 12.0. The market has CHI at -7.5.
Chicago Bears won, CLE 3, CHI 31. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 81% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -7.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 15, the Cleveland Browns were without 8 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 8.0 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CHI 17, CLE 20 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CLE -0.094 against CHI +0.061.
