CLE @ CHI – Week 15 2025
CLE
CHI
CLE
AWAY
3@31
CHI BY 28
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: CHI 81%Our line: CHI -12.0
CHI
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-12.0
OUR LINE
-436
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.094Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.190Offense EPA / play+0.080
-0.096Defense EPA / play+0.018
34.5%Offense success %45.8%
40.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 12.0. Actual: 28. Off by 16.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.5 points.
COLD GAME
8°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CLE | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +295 | -375 |
| Our fair price | +436 | -436 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD CHI -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.34
OUR NUMBER
81%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
76%
DIFFERENCE
+6%
Both figures are for CHI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
8°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4 SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8 SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
120.7 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
S.Sanders1400 yd · 7 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Q.Judkins827 yd · 7 TD
D.Sampson175 yd · 0 TD
S.Sanders169 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
H.Fannin72 rec · 731 yd · 6 TD
J.Jeudy50 rec · 602 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@CLEW15 2023 | CHI 17, CLE 20 | CLE | W |
| CHI@CLEW3 2021 | CHI 6, CLE 26 | CLE | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 81% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project CHI by 12.0. The market has CHI at -7.5.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 38.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CHI 17, CLE 20 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: CLE -0.094 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
