Bills vs Patriots – Week 15 2025
BUF
NE
BUF
AWAY
35@31
BUF BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 35, New England Patriots 31.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots.
Model confidence: NE 59%Our line: NE -3.2
ODDS
GAME TOTAL
PREDICTED TOTAL
47.1
VEGAS LINE
49.5
Projected by the earlier model, before the October 20 rebuild. It is not covered by the test results described for the new model.
SPREAD
NE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.152Net EPA / play+0.205
+0.136 (3)Offense EPA / play+0.158 (1)
-0.016 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.047 (11)
48.5% (2)Offense success %48.4% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE B-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but BUF won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 7.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
NE
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
6 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| NE@BUFW17 2023 | NE 21, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NE by 3.2. The market has NE at +2.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 35, NE 31. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at +2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 15, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 2.4 below the market. That is a projection, not a pick.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New England Patriots: BUF +0.152 against NE +0.205.
