Patriots vs Bills – Week 17 2023
NE
BUF
NE
AWAY
21@27
BUF BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 21, Buffalo Bills 27.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: BUF 80%Our line: BUF -11.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -15.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -11.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.136Net EPA / play+0.182
-0.191 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
-0.055 (12)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
38.9% (28)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 11.2. Actual: 6. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NE
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
174.5 SEASON PPR
145.7 SEASON PPR
119.9 SEASON PPR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE@BUFW4 2026 | NE 29, BUF 26 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW15 2025 | BUF 35, NE 31 | NE | L |
| NE@BUFW5 2025 | NE 23, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@NEW18 2024 | BUF 16, NE 23 | BUF | L |
| NE@BUFW16 2024 | NE 21, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 11.2. The market has BUF at -15.0.
Buffalo Bills won, NE 21, BUF 27. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -15.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 15.0 points.
In Week 17, the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 6.2 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New England Patriots, NE 29, BUF 26 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: NE -0.136 against BUF +0.182.
